Stock Market: Change is the only Constant

What if I told you that the world's largest companies could disappear in 30 years? It sounds impossible, but it's one of the clearest warnings from Warren Buffett, the legendary investor who has seen financial empires rise and fall during a digital revolution. While most people continue to invest as if nothing had happened, Buffett reminds us of an uncomfortable truth.

The future is different from the present, and those who don't understand it will be swept away by the tide. In this video, we'll explore his most recent and direct message. Why can almost no one accurately predict the future? Why do so many people fail in the stock market? What mistake, to avoid at all costs, would he make if he had to start all over again? If you want to prepare for the future and not be caught off guard like most people, follow us to the end.

The number no one expected: 0 out of 20. Warren Buffett begins with a simple but powerful question. How many of today's largest global companies are still among the top companies? It's a question that pushes us to think beyond the present and look to the future.

And the answer it reveals is absolutely shocking. None of the top 20 global companies in 1989 are among the largest companies today. Not one. Not even he has managed to stay at the top.

This leads us to a fundamental conclusion: economic leadership is far more unpredictable than we think. We often think that companies like Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft are untouchable, that they will always dominate the market.

But history shows us otherwise. In 1989, the giants were different: General Electric, IBM, Exxon, but only a few. Huge companies, absolute and solid leaders in their market.

But 30 years later, they have been replaced by new giants, many of which didn't even exist at the time. Buffett doesn't say this to scare us, but to remind us that the economy is changing at a speed we don't always perceive.

And if these changes are happening even to the most powerful companies in the world, what can we expect from others? This is why humility is so important in the world of investing. If we think we can predict the future with accuracy, we risk a rude awakening. No one can, not even the experts.

That zero figure on wine isn't just a curiosity. It's a clear sign that the past is no guarantee of the future. It's an invitation to stop believing that the present is eternal, because the only constant is change and markets, like life, always find new ways to redistribute power.

Why does the United States lead the world rankings? If we examine the current ranking of the world's most valuable companies, we see that 5 of the top 6 are American.

At first glance, this may seem insignificant, but Buffett uses it to highlight a much deeper phenomenon: the extraordinary evolution of the American economic system. It's a historical phenomenon that goes beyond simple entrepreneurial talent or technological innovation.

In 1790, the United States represented only 0.5% of the world's population. Only 4 million people lived there, including 600,000 slaves. Countries like Ireland, Russia, and Ukraine had much larger populations.

Yet, in just two centuries, the United States has become home to most of the world's largest companies. How is such a change possible? Buffett attributes it largely to the system.

A system that encouraged private property, competition, innovation, and the accumulation of capital through clear rules and a strong institutional framework.

Of course, natural conditions contributed to a mild climate and fertile land, but it wasn't unique. Other countries also had resources, but not the same development. The difference lies in the regulatory framework, long-term vision, and economic freedom that allowed ideas, businesses, and human capital to flourish.

This is a point often overlooked when discussing America's success. It's not just about brilliant minds, but about where these people can plant and reap the fruits of their labor. Buffett points out that the American system, despite its imperfections, has proven extremely effective in creating value.

This should lead us to reflect on the system that fosters growth and those that hinder it. The trap of predicting successful industries. To illustrate this, beef facts takes us back to 1989.

At the time, many investors and analysts were convinced they knew which companies were the best. They were certain that General Electric, IBM, Exxon, and other giants would continue to dominate for decades.

And what happened? None of these companies are in the top 20 today. Some no longer exist or have almost completely lost their relevance. The market is not static.

Technologies evolve, consumer habits change, and corporate structures are transformed. What is profitable today could be obsolete tomorrow.

Furthermore, buffet criticizes the blind trust that some fund managers place in financial advisors who promise colossal returns. He states bluntly that their best ideas from 1989 didn't work as well as they thought.

The message is clear: even professionals make mistakes. Even experts didn't foresee the changes that seem so obvious to us today. It's therefore a mistake to believe you can systematically pick winners.

You can be right once, or even twice, but getting it right consistently over 30 years is virtually impossible. And if you don't succeed, you risk achieving lower returns than you would have achieved by buying the entire market.

How do you invest from scratch? Tell the question again. At one of these conferences, Warren Buffett was asked what he would do if he had to start from scratch with less than a million dollars.

His answer is direct and revealing. I will look for small, hidden opportunities, companies that no one pays attention to, and I will dedicate myself to analyzing these companies.

I will not pursue fame or trends or trends. I will do it because I truly enjoy the process, not just for the money. Buffett says that, while fasting, he would spend hours and hours studying Moudise's reports, which contain thousands of pages on companies, mainly in the railway sector.

He studied every company without exception, hoping to unearth the rare gem, and he found it time and time again.

He discovered small, unknown companies, with undervalued assets or solid business models, ignored by the market. This dedication, this obsession with understanding the details, has been the foundation of his success.

For Buffett, knowledge is power, but not just any knowledge, but specific, in-depth, and passionate knowledge. It's not about reading headlines or following financial influencers on social media. It's about dedicating yourself to research, being driven by genuine curiosity, and loving the process of discovery.

That's the real competitive advantage, and it can't be bought with money. One final warning: it's impossible without passion. If you're only interested in money, you run the risk of getting discouraged, giving up halfway, and making impulsive decisions.

But if you truly enjoy understanding how a business works, what makes it profitable, and what sets it apart from others, you'll not only have the chance to make money, but you'll also enjoy the journey.

In short, if your motivation and knowledge are not just profit, you're on the right track. The best strategy for most people, Warren Buffett's approach isn't just for professional investors or financial analysis enthusiasts.

He also has in mind ordinary people, those who don't want to spend their lives reading financial reports, but who still want to ensure a comfortable future, and they are the majority.

He offers a simple, clear, and extremely wise solution: investing in an index-linked fund and the S&P 500 index. And this isn't a suggestion to Nodin; it's what he would recommend to his own wife after his death. Buffett wants to invest 90% of his inheritance in a fund that replicates the S&P 500 index and the remaining 10% in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Here is his strategy for those who want to protect their assets and grow them over time without complicating their lives with constant decisions. Why? Because he believes the market as a whole will continue to grow over the long term, as it has historically.

There's no need to pick individual stocks or try to predict market fluctuations. This advice is also an indirect criticism of the financial industry, which sells complex products, charges high fees and often underperforms the market itself.

Buffett now brings us to one of the most common pitfalls in the world of investing: believing you've found the path to success simply because you have identified a promising sector.

The most striking example is the automobile industry, which, at the beginning of the 20th century, seemed to be the sure thing for the future. Everyone predicted that the automobile would change the world, and that's exactly

what happened.

The logic was irresistible: if the automobile were to become indispensable in the future, investing in any car manufacturer seemed like a guarantee of wealth. But the reality was quite different. In total, more than 2,000 American companies entered the automobile industry during this first boom.

Everyone wanted to profit from this new revolution. As a result, only three major automakers survived, and two of them went bankrupt during the 2008 financial crisis.

The figure is stark, but the message is even more powerful. Even in industries that change the world, most companies fail. Competition, mismanagement, technological advances, and poor strategic decisions lead to the survival of a few.

This example isn't just a history lesson. It's also a reflection of the present.

Today, many people are attracted to sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, or cryptocurrencies. Everyone is looking for the next big thing.

But Buffett reminds us that betting on a sector doesn't mean making the right choice within that sector. The collective chaos can make us believe it's impossible to lose.

Yet, history repeatedly shows us that the majority is wrong. Anticipating change doesn't guarantee market victory. Take the automobile industry, for example. Everyone wanted to be strong.

Buffett examines the auto industry with a narrative that blends economic history, unbridled optimism, and a crucial lesson. He explains that even established brands in other sectors, such as bridges, shops, and even the Nebrase motor company, tried to ride the automotive wave with their own models.

Everyone wanted to be the next ford. The enthusiasm was such that companies of all kinds sprang up like mushrooms.Many of them, without experience or a clear vision, were motivated solely by the promise of easy money.

Among the companies they cite is Marmane, which manufactured cars in

the 1930s and won the Indiana Police 500 in 1911. It even invented the rearview mirror, a detail that seems unremarkable today, but which was a major technological innovation at the time.

Marmane, like many others, had its moment of glory. But it eventually disappeared. The list of manufacturers beginning with an asterisk (A) was already long.

If we considered all the letters of the alphabet, we could fill entire stadiums with brands that no one remembers anymore. The beauty of this story lies not only in the number of companies that tried their luck, but also in its conclusion: having a revolutionary idea like producing cars in a country that didn't yet have them doesn't guarantee you'll become a giant.

Over-enthusiasm, a lack of differentiation, poor management, or simply not being in the right place at the right time can lead to failure.

Even for those who seem to have everything they need to succeed, beef facts warns that the same phenomenon is happening today in some technology companies.

When a story becomes popular, investors stop relying on the numbers and invest solely based on a narrative, but stories don't pay off.

They don't generate profits. They don't do everything. The stock-picking fallacy: many investors, especially beginners, believe they can beat the market by picking the right stocks. This is called stock picking.

And while it sounds promising and profitable, beef facts remind us that it rarely works in the long run. What most people forget is that markets already reflect a large amount of information in stock prices.

Believing they have more information or better judgment than the market is a dangerous form of arrogance.